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More spending on new hospitals and new beds? Nope

Hospital funding:  There is something off about the provincial government's Budget claims on hospital capital funding (funding to build and renovate hospital beds and facilities).    For what it is worth (which is not that much, given the long time frame the government cites), the province claims it will increase hospital capital spending over the next 10 years from $11 billion to $20 billion – or on average to about $2 billion per year.   But, this is just a notional increase from the previous announcement of future hospital capital spending.  Moreover, even if we did take this as a serious promise and not just a wisp of smoke, the government's own reports shows they have actually funded hospital infrastructure about $3 billion a year over the 2011/12-2015/16 period. So this “increase” is really a decrease from past actual spending. Even last year's (2016-17) hospital capital funding increase was reported in this Budget at $2.3 billion - i.e. about 15% more th

Cash give-aways haven't helped the Liberals so why double down?

T he government has answered the question about who migh t benefit from the improved fiscal situation of the province .  A t least in part. The government's announce ment that they will spend $2.5 billion over three yea rs on hydro subsidies ( an average of  $ 833.3 M per year) takes them further down a road th ey have already tried , without much to show for it .   P remier Kathleen Wyn ne imp licitly confirmed growing government revenue but cautioned that th is latest cash give-away is putting them closer to falling back into deficit.  S he stated : " Thanks to a provincial economy that is leading all of Canada growth, we can make this change and stay on track for a balanced budget next year and the years to follow.  But it’s going to be a lot harder now and we’ll remain a lot closer to the line." So far these sort of cash give-aways have accounted for the large majority of the new, in-year spending that has marked the tentative move away from gove

Ontario government spending grows. But the deficit falls like a stone

Yesterday’s third quarter report from the Ministry of F inance indicates that their estimate of the deficit for 2016/17 fiscal year has fallen by $2.4 billion -- from $4.3 billion to $1.9 billion. This despite the announcement of another $223 million in new spending increases for 2016/17.  If you recall, the government announced even more in-year spending increases in the fall for Hydro rebates and hospitals.   Since the 2016/17 Budget, they have now increased program spending about $ 1.1 billion through in-year increases .  That is an in-year increase in program spending of 0.9 2 %.   This is quite unusual for a government that typically under-spends their budget.   The new increased expenditures announced yesterday are mostly on a specific hospital based service and drugs: ·     Ontario Drug Benefit Program: an additional $106.0 million to address funding requirements for the Ontario Drug Benefit program. ·     Malignant Hematology including Ste

The end of provincial public sector austerity in Ontario?

The experts appointed to review the claim by the Auditor General that the surpluses in the teacher and civil servant pension plans cannot be counted as government  assets have reported .   Importantly they have sided with the government and against the Auditor General, Bonnie Lysyk. Lysyk's pension surplus accounting policy required the government to add $10 billion to the provincial debt and $1.5 billion to the deficit last fall. Only then did she  approve the final provincial government books for 2015-16 (the Public Accounts).   The government estimates this policy would add $2.2 billion to the deficit this fiscal year (2016-17).   Indeed, a ccording to the Finance Ministry's Fall Economic Statement t he extra program expense associated with this policy is increasing at a rate of $600 to $900 million per year through until at least 2018-19.   The Minis try of Finance reports that this policy would add $2.8 billion   in program expense in 2017/18 and $3.7 billi

Few hospital beds & sparse hospital staff means overflowing hospitals

There's a lot of news stor ies of late about hospitals overflowing with too many inpatients and not enough beds. Here's some of the headlines:       What is not so often reported is that this is directly related to Ontario's policies of very high hospital bed occupancy and very few hospital beds. The graph below shows curative hospital bed occupancy in European countries -- with occupancy levels usually hovering around 75%. The exceptions are Ireland (which has well above average occupancy) and Macedonia and the Netherlands (which have well below average occupancy). Between 2008 and 2014 most countries saw a small decline in bed occupancy.  Under the OECD definition, "curative" hospital beds excludes rehabilitative and long term care beds.  Eurostat, “Health care resource statistics – beds,”  2016, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Healthcare_resource_statistics_-_beds Ontario how